We can predict the climate but we are not so good at predicting the weather.
Why is this?
First, let us clarify the difference between weather and climate. Weather is what happens in the atmosphere here and now. The weather may seem chaotic, even random. Weather tends to be what many of us focus on especially before weekends and holiday, and very special events. As community-based people, we need to know what the weather will be in the very near future. We have an immediate need to know whether the weather conditions with be sunny and fine, wet and windy, or more extreme.
Can we express the difference between weather and climate?
Well, yes. Weather refers to short term atmospheric conditions. And by short-term, we mean really short-term such as hour-by-hour or day-by-day. It applies to our immediate location usually. In contrast, climate is the weather of a specific region averaged over a long period of time. Climate is dependent on two different parameters: spatial and temporal. The spatial is determined by climate zones (that is another weather topic) and long-term temporal periods such as a minimum of 30 years.
Let us dive in a little deeper into the topic of weather vs climate.
This random, chaotic nature of weather takes effect even at very small, microscopic levels. Microscopic disturbances can have a significant impact on our weather. These disturbances can result in very real large-scale changes in the weather.
Climate, on the other hand, is far more steady and stable. This is because it is the long-term average of the weather over a number of years. Preferably a minimum of 3 decades or 30 years. It is shaped by the large global forces that alter the energy balances in the atmosphere.
For example, changes in the sun’s intensity of energy, the tilt of the earth’s axis, the amount of sunlight the earth receives from the sun, the amount of solar energy reflected back to space, and the concentration of the greenhouse gases (human generated gases) released into the atmosphere wherever humans are living.
A change in any of these parameters affect the climate in largely predictable ways. To summarize the key differences: weather is all about short-term fluctuations while climate is large-scale and predictable.
We cannot observe climate directly. All that we are able to see and experience is the weather. This is typically measured in air temperature, air pressure, precipitation, cloud cover, and soil temperature and moisture. But that average weather over the course of many years reveals a pattern that represents the long-term trends in the climate.
The best advice, therefore, is to keep your focus on the climate, the long-term happenings and not on the short-term, erratic weather. But at the same time, we also need to monitor the weather in our immediate area for our personal plans and activities. Be aware that the 10-day forecast gives a general possible overview of the coming weather over the coming week. But be flexible and ready to adapt to the changes that inevitably happen.
Weather is hard to predict. But climate is (almost) totally predictable. Climate has still changed over the decades and centuries. But these changes are always in response to a global force that is observable. This tends to make the climate trends far easier to predict and observe.
Needless to say, humans also have an impact. The strongest force that is driving the climate right now, in our lifetime, is the increasing levels of CO2 released into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. These CO2 emissions are trapping additional heat from the sun within our atmosphere and in other CO2 reservoirs. A smaller portion of the trapped heat warms the air, i.e. it goes into the atmosphere. But most of the increased heat energy is sequestered (stored) into the oceans. That’s right, the oceans across the globe are getting warmer. And that has major long-term consequences. That’s another topic for another article.
Now you are better equipped to understand the variability and reliability of weather and climate.
